Because very few national polls were released after Iowa, we’ve been eagerly awaiting Monmouth University’s latest national poll even as ballots are cast in New Hampshire. That data has now been incorporated into the model, and with just a few hours until the first polling places close, we’ve frozen the forecast — candidates’ odds won’t update and no new information will be added until after New Hampshire results are available.

The Democratic primary is in a confusing state at the moment. And our forecast model is a little confused, also. It’s making a couple of assumptions about how the polls may react to New Hampshire that may not be entirely right. The model is also limited by the lack of polling in states that vote after New Hampshire, most notably Nevada and South Carolina. So we’d encourage you to take the model with a large grain of salt until some of that post-New Hampshire polling comes in.

Sector rotation in the S&P 500 suggests that investors are once again moving into the riskier parts of the equity market. But it isn’t just equity markets that are seeing a bounce: essential global growth commodities such as copper and oil appear to be stabilizing and even creating technical reversal patterns, suggesting they may begin to increase in price. As investors start to move back into risk assets, one would think that yields on the 10-year Treasury would start to rise once again.

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